Deep V snacks coronavirus excepteur Chillwave

PARIS «The fight against the pandemic is a marathon. We are still far from the finish line because the British variant and the others have changed the games. Basically it starts all over again. However, we must not despair, on the other side of the scale we have the vaccine ". Vittoria Colizza, a 43-year-old Roman physicist in Paris since 2011, leads the EPIcx Lab which studies the models of epidemics and helps guide the choices of the French government. In the latest press conference by Health Minister Olivier Véran, Colizza was next to him on live TV to explain to the French that the curfew, first at 8pm then at 6pm, was able to curb the spread of the "historic" virus. The problem, however, is the current and future variants.

Lockdown, vaccine, variants. How are these parameters articulated?

“Meanwhile, we know the lockdown works. In countries that have had an epidemic outbreak and have closed, like the UK or Portugal, cases are now falling very rapidly. But they are tight confinements, similar to those we met in Italy or France in March. Other countries have acted in a different, preventive manner, trying to anticipate the steepening of the curve ".

Is this the case in Germany?

«Yes, Germany entered lockdown at Christmas and has not yet come out, and the Netherlands have also confined. There we acted in a preventive way ».

And France and Italy?

"They are the countries that, thanks to the measures already taken previously, have managed to push forward the moment when the constant trend breaks down and the variant ends up taking over, which is inevitable. We have known this since December, when the British government warned us: with such a higher contagiousness, the selective advantage of the variant is such that the original virus will be supplanted. In France, we already indicated in January that the variant will become dominant between late February and early March. A month later, the predictions are confirmed. The historic virus, impacted by the curfew at 6pm, is going down. But it is the variant that grows and that will make those measures insufficient ».

So was Germany right to shut down preventively? One gets the impression that other countries have not done so on the basis of extra-scientific considerations.

«On this I always try to be very clear. Science must provide information and hypotheses, possible scenarios. In this case, the most important information is a growth in cases, which we expect, and which will certainly happen. The timing depends on what governments decide, which face very different choices, to be taken on the basis of considerations that we scientists do not have. Germany opted for the lockdown very early on thinking it could count on the support of the population, and on the ability to absorb the economic and social damage. Other countries have chosen intermediate routes, to buy time ».

Like France and Italy.

"Yes, the question is what to do between now and April-May. Imagine an exit from the winter to get to when it will be warmer and we will have more favorable conditions thanks to the increase in temperature and the fact that we will spend more time outside. and we will be able to better ventilate the premises. We are taking the problem further. The only inevitable thing is that the most contagious variant will become dominant ".

In these combinations, how much weight does the vaccine have?

“It's our exit key, no doubt. The problem is that for now in our countries the percentages of vaccinated are so low that they have no real impact on the curves. The vaccine has a double effect: the individual is protected, and therefore the effectiveness on that person is enormous; but the desired effect is also collective, and we are not yet there, due to the difficulties of local production in Europe. In Israel, the benefits are also seen globally. Unfortunately, the quantities we have are still too low to expect consequences on the hinds of the infection. As for the effectiveness on the variants, it is good on the British, more difficult to say on the others ".

Are we at a crucial moment?

"We have to decide what to do between now and spring. In the meantime, we can rule out relaxing as regards the existing measures. The other element is that some territories will experience a sharp increase in cases: in France it is already happening in Moselle with the South African variant, in the South in Nice with the British variant. There are ongoing discussions, in France there is talk of a possible lockdown located in the South, something that in France has never been done unlike Italy ".

The peculiarity of France is also the school remained open, except in the first lockdown.

"Yes, even if France benefits from the more frequent school holidays: in October and now in February, which also means parents who sometimes take holidays and do not go to work, avoiding an important place of contact.